Valuation of Hockey Players - The Luongo Dilemma

This is a follow up on the Pythagorean formula discussion, and focuses on the NHL and the Vancouver Canucks.  A lot of people have ragged on Luongo (myself included).  I wanted to objectively value his worth.  

 

The Pythagorean formula to determine winning percentages has long been used in sabermetrics.  The formula is best summarized as:

Wining % = GF^2 / (GF^2 + GA^2)

Where GF = goals for, and GA = goals against.

This article is used to illustrate the value of Roberto Luongo.  

Predicted Win % - Pythagorean Theorem

Bombers GM has looked at the predicted rankings based on the pythagorean theorem

Winning % =              (Goals For)2                

                    (Goals For)2 + (Goals Against)2

Results:

Simulator is fairly reflective of the formula with actual win% vs predicted win% having an R-squared of 0.6891.  (Predicted win on x-axis, actual win y-axis).

Bombers 2011-2012 Early Season Report

Additions (Excluding Draft Picks):  Tom Pyatt, Brad Marchand, Patrick Kaleta, Paul Gaustad, Ludvig Rensfeldt, Zach Boychuk

Subtractions:  Michael Grabner, Jay McClement, Gilbert Brule, Daniel Catenacci, David Hale, Tim Kennedy, Shaone Morrison, Jed Ortmeyer

Prospect Promotions:  Anton Babchuk

Bombers have not made any significant changes to the team this year, instead, relying on the core base of young players.  

Forwards

Gaming Commissioner

Just wanted to formally announce that Philly GM, Philip has come on board for gaming commissioner duties.  I was going to wait a bit longer when we had something ready to go but he sprung the group email on me out of the blue!  I like self sufficient! ;)

Since we are already a month into the season, a lot of the ideas couldn't be put into play so we'll have to wait for the full version next year but we've got a lot of options now with juicy pay outs to cover for our cheapo, recession unfortunate fans.