2016-17 Adams Division Preview:
NOKIANS
When we last saw Nokians, they were getting skated off the ice in the Wales Conference finals by a Bullies team that was faster, deeper and more than they could handle in a long series.
The sour ending overshadowed a remarkable run by Nokians, one that saw them return to Wales Conference power status. That was further underlined by the strong presence of Nokians’ players on numerous World Cup teams, where John Tavares played for Canada, Brandon Saad for North America, David Pastrnak for the Czech Republic, Jaroslav Halak for Europe, Lauri Korpikoski for Finland, Kyle Palmieri for USA and Duncan Keith would have played for the Canadians, had he been healthy enough to do so.
Halak is healthy and was clutch for Team Europe, which he helped guide to the World Cup of Hockey finals. But the issue with Halak, as always, is durability -- and it would surprise no one if Nokians have to patch together their goaltending as the season moves along. His backup, Calvin Pickard, has potential to be a No. 1, so Nokians look pretty darn solid in goal if Halak can stay on the ice.
It's still a bit hard to believe that Justin Faulk wasn't among those asked to represent the United States at the World Cup of Hockey, especially given the team's poor showing at the tournament. But Faulk may use that as incentive to continue his strong play for Nokians.
In terms of forwards, I continue to be so impressed with the evolution of Brandon Saad. Kyle Palmieri is poised for a breakout season, with the potential to score 30 goals. He could get a look on the top line with Tavares, but either way his work ethic and determination are as important to the team as is his goal production.
Picking up Nick Bonino at the end of the preseason to centre the third line gives Nokians an excellent collection of forwards throughout the top 9 to compete with the conference’s best teams.
A big unknown: how Duncan Keith will fare following offseason surgery on his right knee, which forced him to sit out the World Cup of Hockey. He had surgery to repair the knee last year, but the news that it needed rehabbing had to cause at least minor concern. The 33-year-old is one of the league's top defensemen, and Nokians need a healthy season from him to contend again.
THN's Prediction: John Tavares probably doesn't get the attention that guys like Jonathan Toews, Sidney Crosby or even Ryan Getzlaf do, but Tavares is one of the premier two-way centers in the game and works tirelessly to make himself the most complete player he can be. He was terrific playing out of position for Team Canada, which tells you how humble he is, and he will continue to set the tone in the dressing room, so don't expect much of a regular-season drop-off for a Nokians team that will once again be among the league's finest. 1st in the Adams Division.
2015-16 Result: Lost in the Wales Conference Finals to Bullies
Newcombe-Todd Cup odds:
NOKIANS will have a successful season if… they make another deep playoff run and reach the Newcombe-Todd Cup.
NOKIANS will have an unsuccessful season if… they lose in the second round.
Key additions: Nick Bonino, C
Key departures: Joe Pavelski, C/LW/RW; Connor Murphy, D; Matt Carle, D
The 7 Keys to Success
1. A franchise centerman: John Tavares
2. A franchise defenseman who can play 30 minutes if necessary: Duncan Keith
3. Major contributions from players on cheap contracts: Kyle Palmieri
4. Three skilled scoring lines: Tavares line; Henrique line
5. A mobile defense: Duncan Keith; Justin Faulk
6. A franchise forward: Brandon Saad
7. A franchise goalie: Halak, if healthy and on a heater
Rookies to Watch: Not this year.
GUNNERSHow good will Aleksander Barkov be? Really good. The big center will be 21 when the season begins. Given how pivots of his ilk tend to progress, we’re looking at another big leap from a kid who could be a point-per-gamer in 2016-17. Barkov’s production has jumped every year and, with the talent surrounding him, there’s no reason to believe he’ll be slowing down anytime soon. How much do the teams that passed over him for Jonathan Drouin and Seth Jones in the 2013 draft wish they could have those picks back?
Jack Eichel, 19, is expected to compete for the Calder Trophy. He also played for Team North America at the World Cup of Hockey in September, but didn't have the best tournament. He likely will build off his World Cup experience, which put him at a pace higher than a normal training camp would have. He needs to feed off that experience and get off to a fast start with Gunners.
This defense may not look like they can handle the defensive zone as well as most, but they probably won’t have to spend much time there thanks to their puck-moving ability.
Ryan Suter was an absolute two-way stud last season, and for my money should have received more Norris Trophy consideration, at least in terms of being in top-five consideration. Suter doesn't take a game off. He's a horse on that Gunners blue line, and I don't expect that to change this season.
But long-term, Gunners have been preparing for eventual life after Suter. John Klingberg continues his growth and will quarterback the powerplay. He's only 24, and he's still getting better. He's fun to watch and will key the transition game for Gunners.
In goal, Gunners will lean heavily on Quick, who has settled in as a goalie who can be expected to produce a .917 save percentage each year, but for a guy considered one of the best in the world, that's underwhelming. Perhaps a change of scenery will get him back on track. Gunners are banking on that, as heir-apparent Andrei Vasilevskiy hasn’t exactly proved much at the BFHL level yet and would be a below average starter until he shows otherwise.
THN's Prediction: It’s possible that Gunners’ offseason acquisition of Jonathan Quick and defenseman Cody Ceci from Kenobi for emerging young forward Reily Smith, goaltender Frederik Andersen, and veterans Henrik Zetterberg and Marion Hossa will end up being the most impactful offseason move in the league. 2nd in Adams
2015-16 Result: Did not qualify for playoffs
Gunners will have a successful season if… they have a deep playoff run.
Gunners will have an unsuccessful season if… they lose in the first round of the playoffs.
Key additions: Jonathan Quick, G; Cody Ceci, D; Johnny Boychuk, D
Key departures: Henrik Zetterberg, C/LW/RW; Marion Hossa, RW; Frederik Andersen, G; Reilly Smith, LW/RW
The 7 Keys to Success
1. A franchise centerman: Aleksander Barkov
2. A franchise defenseman who can play 30 minutes if necessary: Ryan Suter
3. Major contributions from players on cheap contracts: Barkov, Eichel, Ceci and Draisaitl are on their ELCs
4. Three skilled scoring lines: Barkov line; Stepan line; Eichel line
5. A mobile defense: Suter; Muzzin; Klingberg; Yandle
6. A franchise forward: Not yet.
7. A franchise goalie: Jonathan Quick is, supposedly, a top 5 goalie
Rookies to Watch: Eichel
ROACHES
We actually wrestled with where to slot in "The King" in this preview. Is Lundqvist a sure thing or big question mark? As noted, the playoffs ended on a sour note for the one player most responsible for Tony The Tigers' improbable success (considering the previous ownership situation) over the past few seasons, with Lundqvist sporting a 3.68 goals-against average and pedestrian .891 save percentage. It's fair to say this season looms large for the 34-year-old Lundqvist. But he was excellent at the World Cup of Hockey (even if his Swedish teammates were less so).
There are plenty of unknowns for Roaches. For instance, what type of season will Bobby Ryan have? He was left off the roster for Team USA at the World Cup of Hockey and has struggled in recent seasons to find consistency. Ryan, now 29, needs to provide more offensive output. He registered 1 assist and a -2 rating in 5 playoff games last season. For a top-six player on a team searching for offense, that can’t happen again. Whether it’s conditioning or something mental, Ryan has yet to figure out a way to play productively through 82 games. Prove us wrong, Bobby. Your team may depend on it.
Will P.K. Subban have a career year? Subban is smack in the middle of his prime at 27, and the conditions appear just right for an explosive Subban campaign after signing a team-friendly three-year contract (he loves the team’s new ownership group). Subban and Alex Edler already look like one of the division’s top tandems on paper.
Max Domi will contend for the Calder Trophy and Matt Duchene looks ready to establish himself as a premier number one centre in the BFHL, so the offense should be good this season, even if Kyle Turris struggles to repeat last year’s strong performance as the team’s top centreman.
James Van Riemsdyk was acquired for Leo Komarov and Nino Niederreiter in the summer and will play on the top line with Duchene, giving Roaches two forwards with World Cup experience.
THN's Prediction: The bottom line is that Lundqvist has to be, well, Lundqvist, and if he is, the team is playoff bound and should be a handful. If he's not, if time is starting to wear down The King, then it won't really matter what else has been done to this lineup. Roaches will be in trouble. 3rd in Adams
2015-16 Result: Lost in the first round to Bullies
Newcombe-Todd Cup odds:
TONY THE TIGERS will have a successful season if… they make the playoffs while changing the franchise’s culture.
TONY THE TIGERS will have an unsuccessful season if… they barely make the playoffs and get a draft pick outside the top 10.
Key additions: James Van Riemsdyk, LW; Alex Edler, D; Jonas Gustavsson, G; Cam Ward, G
Key departures: Leo Komarov, LW/RW; Nino Niederreiter, LW/RW; William Karlsson, LW/C
The 7 Keys to Success
1. A franchise centerman: Matt Duchene
2. A franchise defenseman who can play 30 minutes if necessary: PK Subban
3. Major contributions from players on cheap contracts: Max Domi
4. Three skilled scoring lines: Duchene line; Turris line
5. A mobile defense: PK Subban; Alex Edler
6. A franchise forward: Max Domi looks like he could be one in the coming years.
7. A franchise goalie: Henrik Lundqvist
Rookies to Watch: Max Domi
AVIATORS
Did last spring's second-round playoff exit after a short series with Nokians in which they looked overmatched signal a new era for Aviators?
Or was it just time to reset and come back stronger around the talented core led by Jonathan Toews, Vladimir Tarasenko, Drew Doughty, Milan Lucic and Corey Crawford -- a quintet I'd put up against any group in the BFHL? During the World Cup, Toews showed yet again the kind of two-way beast and clutch player he is.
Superstar winger Tarasenko scored 7 goals in 10 playoff games last season. The 24-year-old is just getting better. Does he top countryman Alex Ovechkin for the Rocket Richard Trophy this season? Tarasenko should be motivated by a dominant playoff performance last season.
Milan Lucic will spend the year creating space for his linemates, trying to find his scoring touch as he’s a UFA next summer and will want to have a monster season to secure a long-term contract. Phil Kessel re-upped for one year and will play somewhere in the top six with Toews or Backlund. He should be good for about 60 points and will help take pressure off of Tarasenko.
Alex Wennnberg’s emergence as a quality top six forward made Derick Brassard expendable. He will also be relied upon to replace Ondrej Palat’s playmaking ability and strong two-way play.
He’s not widely acclaimed, but 23-year-old winger Tobias Rieder is a skilled player. He may not be a high-end scorer, but is skilled enough to contribute in an offensive role on either wing.
Drew Doughty or Erik Karlsson? The best defenseman in the BFHL has been Karlsson, but Doughty gets a lot of love here for his superior all around game. He anchors a group of defensemen that is, on paper, a little underwhelming, but Jason Demers is solid and Dan Girardi might be a pylon on skates, but he’s the best hockey-playing pylon in the world.
THN's Prediction: Crawford is coming off arguably his best BFHL season and an appearance in the World Cup in which he backed up Carey Price and got to start a game. He's rock-solid in net and one of the top five goalies in the world, in my estimation. 4th in Adams
2015-16 Result: Lost in second round to Nokians
Aviators will have a successful season if… Mikael Backlund, Tobias Rieder and an emerging Alex Wennberg can replace Derick Brassard and Ondrej Palat’s production as rookie Nikolaj Ehlers develops.
Aviators will have an unsuccessful season if… They miss the playoffs.
Key additions: Nikolaj Ehlers, LW; Mikael Backlund, C
Key departures: Derick Brassard, C; Ondrej Palat, LW; Zach Bogosian, D
The 7 Keys to Success
1. A franchise centerman: Jonathan Toews
2. A franchise defenseman who can play 30 minutes if necessary: Drew Doughty
3. Major contributions from players on cheap contracts: Alex Wennberg
4. Three skilled scoring lines: Toews line; Backlund line
5. A mobile defense: Drew Doughty and Jason Demers
6. A franchise forward: Vladimir Tarasenko
7. A franchise goalie: Corey Crawford
Rookies to Watch: Nikolaj Ehlers
WORGSCan Worgs continue their upward arc in terms of evolution while we've seen so many teams take one step forward and then regress for a season or two? Specifically, can they find enough offense to help take the pressure off the defense and goaltending? Patrick Kane, playing on the top line with Pavel Datsyuk, has the look of a Hart Trophy favorite this season and could lead the BFHL in scoring. He's an absolute artist on the ice.
Evander Kane’s status remains uncertain. The forward was charged with misdemeanor criminal trespass and five noncriminal counts of disorderly conduct and harassment stemming from an incident at a Buffalo bar this summer. He is next scheduled to appear in court on Oct. 31.
If he can stay out of trouble and off the IR, he could be a big part of one of the better first lines in the league. If he can’t, there’s always Gabriel Landeskog and his reliable, physical two-way play to compliment the Magic Man and Patrick Kane.
Dougie Hamilton and Danny DeKeyser make up the top pairing on defense for Worgs. After these two, there’s a pretty steep drop off in talent, so it looks like Patrick Kane and Pavel Datsyuk will have to outscore the other team every game in order for this team to have a chance.
Can the unlikely goaltending tandem of Steve Mason and Anders Nilsson continue to provide the high level of netminding we saw down the stretch and into the playoffs last year from Mason and the since-traded Michal Neurvirth?
Between its farm team, Volk and the pro roster, Worgs has almost 800 players signed to professional contracts. We’re not sure if this is savvy management, or if Worgs is planning on breaking away from the BFHL and starting its own league.
THN's Prediction: Lots of teams are trending north in the Adams Division. I'm just not sure Worgs are one of them. 5th in the Adams Division.
2015-16 Result: lost in the first round to Aviators
WORGS will have a successful season if… they make the playoffs, or if they miss the playoffs and win the draft lottery. Win-win.
WORGS will have an unsuccessful season if… they miss the playoffs and get a draft pick closer to 10 than 1.
Key additions: Pavel Datsyuk, LW/RW/C; Danny DeKeyser, D
Key departures: Calvin de Haan, D; Mikko Koivu, C
The 7 Keys to Success
1. A franchise centerman: One year of Pavel Datsyuk
2. A franchise defenseman who can play 30 minutes if necessary: No, Dougie Hamilton doesn’t qualify.
3. Major contributions from players on cheap contracts: Anton Lander; Joe Colborne
4. Three skilled scoring lines: Datsyuk line
5. A mobile defense: Dougie Hamilton
6. A franchise forward: Patrick Kane
7. A franchise goalie: Mason has the potential to be one
Rookies to Watch: Not this year
SPARTANSPaul Stastny is Spartans’ version of Aviators’ Jonathan Toews or Bombers’ Anze Kopitar, the team's most complete two-way player and a guy who never takes a night off. He exudes character. He's strong on both sides of the puck and never seems to make the wrong decision with it. He can play both center and wing, which adds to his versatility.
After unsuccessful stops with Gunners and Bettbot, can Sam Gagner make a last career stand with Spartans?
Artemi Panarin, coming off a wildly successful season in the KHL decided to sign with Spartans because of its unsettled ownership situation and league-managed front office. That means he’s a wild card and if there is one thing this league needs, it’s unpredictable and highly skilled puck-wizards lighting up the score sheet in anonymity. If he’s a success, he will attract free agents and new owners. If he’s not a success, it won’t have been his fault, so, in a way, Panarin has chosen the perfect situation.
The defense is solid, if unspectacular, and will be led by Erik Gudbranson and while he may not be an analytics darling, he has proven to be a punishing, defense-first player who will keep the other team honest. Anton Stralman is a quality puck-moving defenseman, but his ability to thrive away from a structure like Storm’s is something that bears watching.
Craig Anderson has the potential to steal a dozen games, or so, and Spartans will need him to, if they want to have any chance at making the playoffs.
THN's Prediction: With the right direction from the league office, this could be a decent team, but there’s not a lot of depth here and by the end of the season, that should catch up with them. 6th in Adams
2015-16 Result: NA
SPARTANS will have a successful season if… they make the playoffs, or miss the playoffs and get a high draft pick… or, if they find a new owner.
SPARTANS will have an unsuccessful season if… they just miss the playoffs and are unable to turn veteran assets into prospects and picks, while being stuck in the dreaded ‘just-missed-the-playoffs-and-lost-the-draft-lottery-spot.’
Key additions: Artemi Panarin, LW/RW; Paul Stastny, C; Antoine Vermette, C; Benoit Pouliot, LW; Anton Stralman, D; Erik Gudbranson, D; Craig Anderson, G
Key departures:
The 7 Keys to Success
1. A franchise centerman: No
2. A franchise defenseman who can play 30 minutes if necessary: Maybe Gudbranson, in time; perhaps Stralman when he’s healthy
3. Major contributions from players on cheap contracts: No
4. Three skilled scoring lines: No
5. A mobile defense: Anton Stralman
6. A franchise forward: Artemi Panarin
7. A franchise goalie: No
Rookies to Watch: Artemi Panarin