2016-17 Patrick Division Preview:
BOMBERSIn one summer, Bombers have been involved in two of the biggest blockbusters in recent memory, acquiring center Anze Kopitar and trading away defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Continuing the transformation of a once defense-first hockey club into a team with unparalleled depth down the middle in the Wales Conference, they brought in Ryan Kesler v2.0, Bo Horvat.
Thanks to the expansion draft, free agency and an aging roster, Bombers saw a fair amount of turnover at the top of their talent pool: Niklas Hjalmarsson was exposed in the expansion draft and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, an RFA this past summer, was traded for prospects Thomas Chabot, Christian Fischer and a first-round pick that eventually became German Rubtsov. Brad Marchand wanted a change-of-scenery and bolted for Sheep as a UFA.
However, with the division’s best blue-line corps led by Roman Josi, the sky might still be the limit for this team. The addition of Radko Gudas, from Condors, could pay dividends- provided he’s not convicted of manslaughter before he reaches his potential as a BFHL defenseman. David Savard is as underrated as he is effective, he will log big minutes and do just enough to keep the transition game going when Bombers move out of their own end.
Up front, you have to figure Claude Giroux is motivated after making Team Canada's World Cup of Hockey roster and then not playing. He rebounded after being left off the 2014 Olympic roster, so expect a similar response this time around.
Corey Perry, despite being eligible for his old-age-pension, is still one of the best RWs in the BFHL and will provide goals for Bombers and an endless supply of aggravation for the opposition.
Where David Backes and Luke Glendening will play remains a question. Having Anze Kopitar, Giroux and Bo Horvat as the team's top three centers gives Bombers a lot of depth, so Backes could spend some time on the wing, as could Glendening. They’re both exceptional on the defensive side of the puck, so don’t be surprised to see them playing down the middle for stretches this season.
The line of Horvat, Luke Glendening and Emerson Etem (yup, still plays professional hockey) should be a solid checking unit for Bombers.
Cory Schneider didn't get much of a shot for Team USA at the World Cup of Hockey -- he played one period in the tournament -- but he's an elite netminder, and if Bombers are going to return to the final four in the Wales Conference, Schneider will have to shoulder a mighty load.
THN's Prediction: Bombers have three sure things, and they're what makes this a team that you can never count out: Josi, Cory Schneider and Kopitar. It's such an advantage to have a world-class No. 1 defenseman, elite Vezina-caliber goalie and No. 1 center on the roster. Good teams have one. Only the lucky few have two, and the best have all three- those are the teams usually playing well into the spring. 1st in Patrick
2015-16 Result: Lost in 2nd round to Bullies
Bombers will have a successful season if… They can get younger while staying competitive.
Bombers will have an unsuccessful season if… They get older and miss out on the third round, thereby watching their championship window close a little bit more.
Key additions: Connor Hellebuyck, G; Anze Kopitar, C; Bo Horvat, C; Corey Perry, RW; Radko Gudas, D; James Wisniewski, D; Martin Marincin, D
Key departures: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D; Niklas Hjalmarsson, D; Brad Marchand, LW
The 7 Keys to Success
1. A franchise centerman: Anze Kopitar; Claude Giroux
2. A franchise defenseman who can play 30 minutes if necessary: Roman Josi
3. Major contributions from players on cheap contracts: Bo Horvat; Luke Glendening; Jacob Trouba; Andrej Sustr; Martin Marincin; Connor Hellebuyck
4. Three skilled scoring lines: Bombers have two in the Kopitar line and Giroux line
5. A mobile defense: Roman Josi and David Savard
6. A franchise forward: Corey Perry
7. A franchise goalie: Cory Schneider
Rookies to Watch: Connor Hellebuyck; Mikka Salomaki
BULLIESWhen Bullies limped off the ice after being whacked by Honey Badgers in five games in the Newcombe-Todd Cup Finals last spring, it was hard not to imagine that it likely marked the end of an era. Goalie Pekka Rinne looked beaten down. The defense that had backchecked the team to the finals in 2014 and 2015 looked broken. Rick Nash was a nonfactor. We've seen Nash bounce back before, but the former No. 1 pick is getting into his mid-30s and has an injury history. His 40-goal seasons are probably over.
In short, it was hard not to imagine the future as anything but bleak, but credit is due for somehow retooling on the fly by acquiring reliable two-way center Brandon Sutter and Mike Cammalleri in free agency. They managed to dump Pavel Datsyuk’s cumbersome contract, traded Alex Pietrangelo for a boatload of picks and intriguing prospect defense prospect, Anthony DeAngelo. Was it a shuffling of the deck chairs or a bold reinvigorating of Bullies' lineup that will help get them back in the final four for the third year in a row?
Biggest unknowns: Let's start with Cammalleri, who is reportedly at full strength. When healthy, he is one of the most creative, productive players in the game, but the 34-year-old has ‘durability issues.’ Look, if we’re going to be honest, Mike Cammalleri is the human equivalent of a coffee mug that has been dropped, broken and glued back together at least sixty times- its presence on the shelf a tragic reminder of the clumsiness of man and the inescapable truth that everything, eventually, falls apart.
Will the blue line return to its former state, or are those days gone forever? Pietrangelo will be hard to replace and missing on Alex Edler in free agency hurts.
Mark Giordano is still one of the best defensemen in the league and Tyson Barrie will finally get his chance to quarterback the powerplay, but Bullies will struggle in their own end more than they’re used to.
Is there enough offense there to keep Bullies comfortably in the championship picture? The talent is certainly there with Blake Wheeler, Evgeni Malkin, Alex Steen and Mark Stone (who happens to be one of the bright young talents in the league --the 24-year-old will need to hit the 30-goal plateau this season to spark the offense).
Sure things: Blake Wheeler is one of the best forwards in the world and should finish in the top ten in scoring this season. Evgeni Malkin, firmly entrenched as the team’s 1C, will produce, as always. Forward Tomas Plekanec, 33, returns for another season with Bullies. He recently served as captain for the Czech Republic at the World Cup. He should put up 50 points in 2016-17. Goalie Petr Mrazek also played well in the World Cup for the Czech Republic and could compete with Rinne for starts this season- he’s that good already.
Pekka Rinne’s been average to below average more often than not of late and found himself benched in favor of Craig Anderson during the playoffs. That had never happened before. Rinne, 33, needs to make a statement in 2016-17.
THN's Prediction: I still think Rinne is capable of delivering the goods, and I like what Bullies have done up front without really sacrificing skill. I fully expect them to be good enough in their own zone and ultimately finish where they end up pretty much every spring -- in the playoffs. 2nd in the Patrick Division.
2015-16 Result: Lost in Newcombe-Todd Cup Finals to Honey Badgers
Bullies will have a successful season if… they finally break through and win it all.
Bullies will have an unsuccessful season if… history repeats itself and they lose in the finals again.
Key additions: Mike Cammalleri, LW/C; Brandon Sutter C/RW;
Key departures: Alex Pietrangelo, D; Alex Edler, D; Andrei Markov, D; Pavel Datsyuk, C/LW/RW
The 7 Keys to Success
1. A franchise centerman: Evgeni Malkin
2. A franchise defenseman who can play 30 minutes if necessary: Mark Giordano
3. Major contributions from players on cheap contracts: Mark Stone
4. Three skilled scoring lines: Malkin line; Plekanec line; Dubinsky line
5. A mobile defense: Mark Giordano and Tyson Barrie
6. A franchise forward: Blake Wheeler
7. A franchise goalie: Rinne might be past his prime; Mrazek is at least a year away
Rookies to Watch: none
NESPRESSOIt's hard to not focus on Price. He was healthy in time to start for Team Canada at the World Cup, and he looked sharp in the five games he played, with a 1.40 goals-against average and a .957 save percentage. After winning the World Cup, Price said he was ready for the regular season, though questions about his durability for the upcoming season remain.
After a terrific debut in 2015-16, Ryan Strome has struggled in training camp and may spend the season in the minors. Nespresso will need the highly skilled forward's offensive gifts to produce offense in order for them to remain competitive come next season.
A season ago, Alex Galchenyuk proved to be a quality BFHL forward. This year, Nespresso will build its offense around him and Patrice Bergeron. The 22-year-old from Milwaukee was the centerpiece of the return for veteran Sidney Crosby, signaling a new direction for the franchise. He could score 30 goals this season.
If there's one sure thing in the BFHL, it's Patrice Bergeron's consistent play (an off-season trade brought him over from Thrashers in exchange for Hampus Lindholm and a second-round pick in last June’s draft), something Nespresso will be banking on as Galchenyuk develops into a bonafide 1C. Bryan Little is a quality top-six forward and will spend time playing down the middle and at right wing.
Carey Price’s health and durability will hang over the franchise throughout the year. After Bergeron, Galchenyuk and Little, where are the goals coming from? Justin Abdelkader is a quality grinder who can play up and down the lineup, but isn’t known for his goal-scoring. Ryan Strome? The jury’s still out on his upside at the BFHL level and he may need another year to develop. Craig Smith should be good for 20 goals and Jason Pominville still has a little left in the tank, though, at this point, we’re unsure if it’s premium unleaded or whatever you’d put in your lawnmower.
That defense, especially after the Lindholm trade, leaves a lot to be desired. Matt Carle was acquired at the end of the preseason for Nick Bonino and immediately becomes the best defenseman on the team- that’s not great. Luke Schenn and Klas Dahlbeck are decent third-pairing defensemen, but they might be relied on to go up against the opposition’s best, and that’s not an ideal situation for Carey Price. John-Michael Liles can still move the puck; he just doesn’t do it at a high level anymore.
THN's Prediction: In order for Nespresso to make the playoffs, the whole will have to be far greater than the sum of the parts. 3rd in Patrick
2015-16 Result: Did not qualify for playoffs
NESPRESSO will have a successful season if… they make the playoffs.
NESPRESSO will have an unsuccessful season if… they miss the playoffs.
Key additions: Patrice Bergeron, C
Key departures: Hampus Lindholm, D
The 7 Keys to Success
1. A franchise centerman: Patrice Bergeron
2. A franchise defenseman who can play 30 minutes if necessary: No
3. Major contributions from players on cheap contracts: No
4. Three skilled scoring lines: Bergeron line
5. A mobile defense: No
6. A franchise forward: Possibly Alex Galchenyuk, though we’re unsure if he’s an LW, or a C. He also might still be a year away from answering this question.
7. A franchise goalie: Price, if healthy
Rookies to Watch: None... yet.
TRUE GRITOne need only look at True Grit’s offseason in its entirety to see that they are in considerably better shape than they were last year at this time- even after the acquisition of Ryan Johansen.
First and foremost, True Grit are getting a Connor McDavid who enters the BFHL ready to take on the second line centre role, possibly even the first, depending upon what coach Auto Line Function decides. The 2015 No. 1 draft pick continues to add strength and even speed, which some thought impossible.
"I believe in my game a lot more heading in," McDavid said.
If he's healthy for 82 games, McDavid will be one of the best players in the league this season and make a Hart Trophy push.
Is there anyone steadier -- and maybe more underappreciated -- than Wayne Simmonds?
Conversely, is there anyone more inept and comiically useless than former first overall pick, Nail Yakupov?
Credit should be given, however, to True Grit for the decision to part ways with the mercurial Jonathan Drouin in exchange for a franchise goaltender. Braden Holtby has emerged as one of the best netminders in the BFHL, and the best may still be yet to come- he is just coming into his prime at age 27.
How will McDavid handle the white-hot glare of BFHL superstardom? Is Ryan Johansen worth the almost nine million dollars True Grit’s ownership group will give him this season? After Karl Alzner and Alec Martinez, this isn’t an inspiring group of defensemen, so where will the support for Holtby and the transition game for McDavid and co. come from?
THN's Prediction: Is this the season True Grit puts it all together and takes a run at the playoffs? McDavid will carry this team out of the cellar, but not all the way up to the penthouse. 4th in Patrick
2015-16 Result: Did not qualify for playoffs
TRUE GRIT will have a successful season if… they make the playoffs.
TRUE GRIT will have an unsuccessful season if… there is no such thing as an unsuccessful season for True Grit.
Key additions: Karl Alzner, D; Paul Byron, LW/RW/C
Key departures: Kevin Bieksa, D
The 7 Keys to Success
1. A franchise centerman: Connor McDavid; Ryan Johansen; Henrik Sedin- if he doesn’t die of old age before the season’s finished.
2. A franchise defenseman who can play 30 minutes if necessary: No, but Karl Alzner is a quality shutdown defender.
3. Major contributions from players on cheap contracts: McDavid is on his ELC
4. Three skilled scoring lines: McDavid line and the Johansen line.
5. A mobile defense: No
6. A franchise forward: Wayne Simmonds
7. A franchise goalie: Braden Holtby
Rookies to Watch: Connor McDavid
RAMPAGEVeteran centre Martin Hanzal, getting top line minutes this season, should put up career highs in points, but the 2012-2013 lockout season was the only time in the past six seasons that he missed fewer than 15 games. His size and a bit of a nasty disposition on the ice makes him good to use in tough matchups against other teams’ top lines. Hanzal is an interesting case: a strong possession player but limited offensively and can’t be counted on to stay healthy.
39-year-old Shane Doan will be playing on the top line with Hanzal and, despite his age, could have his most productive season since 2008-2009. Even if Doan is unable to score at a high rate, he can still be a valuable complementary part of the lineup.
While veteran winger Patrick Sharp was a solid contributor for Storm last season, his production did slide as the season progressed. With Hanzal, Doan and Sharp playing prominent roles for Rampage.
The defense is pretty good here, with Matt Hunwick and Kris Russell being dependable defense-first guys and Andrej Sekera being a decent puck-moving option to help with the transition game.
In goal, Thomas Greiss will have every opportunity to demonstrate to the league that he’s a legitimate option as a number one goaltender. He’s talented enough to help Rampage contend for a playoff spot, but he’ll have to prove he’s capable of delivering on a regular basis.
Sure things: Rampage will absolutely suck to play against for opposing forwards and defensemen.
THN's Prediction: Are Patrick Sharp and Shane Doan too old to have a sustained impact on the score sheet over the course of an entire season? Is that really Dave Bolland, the former hockey player, on this depth chart? 5th in Patrick
2015-16 Result: NA
RAMPAGE will have a successful season if… they reach the playoffs.
RAMPAGE will have an unsuccessful season if… they finish in the bottom three and lose out in the draft lottery, getting the 6th overall pick.
Key additions: Martin Hanzal, C; Patrick Sharp, LW; Shane Doan, RW; Thomas Greiss, G
Key departures:
The 7 Keys to Success
1. A franchise centerman: No
2. A franchise defenseman who can play 30 minutes if necessary: No
3. Major contributions from players on cheap contracts: No
4. Three skilled scoring lines: No
5. A mobile defense: Sekera
6. A franchise forward: Shane Doan was one, once upon a time.
7. A franchise goalie: Maybe Thomas Greiss is one. Maybe?
Rookies to Watch:
CONDORSWant to know what a dumpster fire looks like? It kind of looks like this, but with more fire and less garbage.
Forward Gustav Nyquist was fantastic last season, but may struggle to sustain that level of play with little-to-no talent surrounding him on the roster.
Justin Williams still has a lot left in the tank at age 35, but it will be an uphill battle with this roster.
The biggest addition is July 1 unrestricted free-agent signing, and personification of age-driven decline, Eric Staal, who no doubt enters this season ultramotivated to show people he's not done as an elite center. His numbers have certainly regressed the past few years, and the conclusion of his tenure with Nespresso last season wasn't very impressive. Staal turns 32 this year and feels there's much hockey left in him. He signed a two-year, $9.6 million deal with Condors and intends to show that was a bargain.
At the other end of the circle of life are John Gibson and Seth Jones. Gibson is a future top-10 goalie in the BFHL. The only question is how soon? And this could be the year Seth Jones shows he can be a legit number one D-man.
THN's Prediction: It's going to be another long, pointless season for Condors' loyal, but disinterested fanbase. 6th in Patrick
2015-16 Result: Did not qualify for playoffs
Condors will have a successful season if… they win the draft lottery.
Condors will have an unsuccessful season if… they finish in the bottom three, but end up with the 6th overall pick in the 2017 draft.
Key additions: Eric Staal, C/LW; Brooks Laich, C; Ondrej Pavelec, G
Key departures: Radko Gudas, D; Martin Marincin, D; Simon Despres, D
The 7 Keys to Success
1. A franchise centerman: No- Eric Staal no longer qualifies
2. A franchise defenseman who can play 30 minutes if necessary: Dustin Byfuglien, Ryan McDounagh
3. Major contributions from players on cheap contracts: Seth Jones is still on his ELC
4. Three skilled scoring lines: Staal line
5. A mobile defense: Byfuglien; McDonagh; Jones; Jeff Petry; Torrey Krug
6. A franchise forward: Patrick Marleau is on his last legs
7. A franchise goalie: Gibson is a year away
Rookies to Watch: John Gibson