Here's a quick preview of what the salaries for BFHL will look like compared to actual NHL salaries.
- X-axis is an assessment of skill based on the ratings we're using this year - I applied a factor to those stats in deriving the "skill" value (i.e. you pay more for scoring and passing, than say fighting etc).
- Y-axis is self explanatory.
- The dots are ACTUAL data.
- The lines represent how BFHL is pricing players.
- All entry level contracts excluded from analysis.
- All minimum contracts excluded from analysis.
- All contracts bought out were excluded from analysis (note I point out Rick Dipietro every year and not this year?).
- Over 43% of the data was post-CBA. Another 33% of data was from 2012. So the salaries are heavily weighed towards recent contracts like in real life.
Forwards
Unlike last year, I ran linear rather than exponential regressions - reason being was that mid end players were way underpriced and Crosby would have been worth north of $12mm when I used an exponential set. The two linear regressions actually makes more sense. and the results were more fair.
Defense
Same as above. Two regressions rather than one. The mid-level guys were being severely underpriced if I used an exponential regression.
Goalies
No Rick Dipietro. Notice how the fit is so much better than last year w/o Dipietro (R-squared popped up after taking him out!)
