Valuation of Hockey Players - The Luongo Dilemma

This is a follow up on the Pythagorean formula discussion, and focuses on the NHL and the Vancouver Canucks.  A lot of people have ragged on Luongo (myself included).  I wanted to objectively value his worth.  

 

The Pythagorean formula to determine winning percentages has long been used in sabermetrics.  The formula is best summarized as:

Wining % = GF^2 / (GF^2 + GA^2)

Where GF = goals for, and GA = goals against.

This article is used to illustrate the value of Roberto Luongo.  

Predicted Win % - Pythagorean Theorem

Bombers GM has looked at the predicted rankings based on the pythagorean theorem

Winning % =              (Goals For)2                

                    (Goals For)2 + (Goals Against)2

Results:

Simulator is fairly reflective of the formula with actual win% vs predicted win% having an R-squared of 0.6891.  (Predicted win on x-axis, actual win y-axis).

Bombers 2011-2012 Early Season Report

Additions (Excluding Draft Picks):  Tom Pyatt, Brad Marchand, Patrick Kaleta, Paul Gaustad, Ludvig Rensfeldt, Zach Boychuk

Subtractions:  Michael Grabner, Jay McClement, Gilbert Brule, Daniel Catenacci, David Hale, Tim Kennedy, Shaone Morrison, Jed Ortmeyer

Prospect Promotions:  Anton Babchuk

Bombers have not made any significant changes to the team this year, instead, relying on the core base of young players.  

Forwards