THN 2016-17 Norris Division Preview
2016-17 Norris Division Preview:
"Guys are excited to get back and get this season started," said Logan Couture. "There was a sense of disappointment once (the season) ended. Throughout the summer, talking to guys, everyone is just excited to get back and get going again." Couture is firmly established as the franchise’s number one centre and will provide offense and effective defensive play- provided he can stay healthy.
Smallish, but skilled Teuvo Teravainen, who spent last year in the minors, joins an emerging young cast of forwards that includes Tomas Hertl and Sam Reinhart. These three are the future of this franchise up front and their success, or lack thereof, will go a long way towards determining Storm’s ability to contend this year.
James Neal can be counted on for 25 or 30 goals, and Tyler Toffoli should establish himself as one of the premier snipers in the conference. Between these two, Storm will have no trouble scoring and the presence of Erik Haula and Jordan Staal means they will have effective, if not dominant, defensive play from their forward corps throughout the season.
Storm has what is, arguably, the best group of defensemen in the BFHL. John Carlson will do what he does best: be a dominant two-way force that frees up Erik Karlsson to do what Erik Karlsson does best: lead the offense. Rasmus Ristolainen will be an upgrade in the top four this season. He played for Finland at the World Cup.
Sure things: Erik Karlsson. Erik Karlsson. And, oh, Erik Karlsson. The three-time defending Norris Trophy winner was outstanding last season. He plays a ton and re-upped for three years this summer. There is no doubt he's still one of the best defensemen in the league- if not the best- and there's no reason not to think he can't continue that dominance as the premier rearguard in the BFHL. He'll have to if Storm are going figure out a way to make it back to the top of the league.
THN's Prediction: I'm banking on Marc-Andre Fleury being dynamite and the offense up front getting better. I just love the way this team plays and how that blue-line corps is constructed. The Norris Division race is going to be an absolute beast, where I'd argue four teams could win it, but give me Storm atop the division when the regular season ends in April, and a deep playoff run to follow. 1st in Norris
2015-16 Result: Lost in the first round
STORM will have a successful season if… they return to the Campbell Conference Finals and reestablish themselves as one of the elite teams in BFHL.
STORM will have an unsuccessful season if… they fail to advance beyond the first round in the playoffs again.
Key additions: Connor Murphy, D
Key departures: Martin Hanzal, C; Antoine Vermette, C; Mike Cammalleri, LW/C; Patrick Sharp, LW; Erik Gudbranson, D
The 7 Keys to Success
1. A franchise centerman: Logan Couture is on the verge of establishing himself as one.
2. A franchise defenseman who can play 30 minutes if necessary: Erik Karlsson and John Carlson
3. Major contributions from players on cheap contracts: Erik Haula; Tomas Hertl; Teuvo Teravainen; Rasmus Ristolainen; Matt Nieto; Connor Murphy; Mark Borowiecki
4. Three skilled scoring lines: Couture line; Staal line; Haula line
5. A mobile defense: Karlsson; Ristolainen; Carlson
6. A franchise forward: James Neal and Tyler Toffoli
7. A franchise goalie: Marc-Andre Fleury
Rookies to Watch: Sam Reinhart
Honey Badgers are coming off a dominating regular season during which they won the Presidents' Trophy by an absurd margin and followed that up with a scintillating playoff run during which they were really only challenged by Torpedoes in the second round. Unfortunately for Honey Badgers, number one centreman Ryan Kesler chased the money and stepped out of Jamie Benn’s shadow with an off-season move to Sheep.
Speaking of Benn, he does it all on both sides of the puck. He is a throwback in some ways, with his intimidating style, yet he is blessed with soft hands. He’s this generation’s Gordie Howe, or, maybe, Gordie Howe was that generation’s Jamie Benn.
Marian Gaborik isn't healthy -- again. His speed changes the dynamic of Honey Badgers' lineup, and it's a huge unknown how many games he'll play during the course of the season.
Will Jaromir Jagr lead the team in scoring? No, but The Legend will turn 45 during the season, and will be the reason Jamie Benn wins the scoring race.
Honey Badgers’ GM looked at this lineup, which includes the defending Vezina and Conn Smythe Trophy winner, Roberto Luongo, all-world left-wing and possible time-travelling alien, Jamie Benn, and a potential Norris Trophy-winning defenseman in Brent Burns, and decided there wasn't much he lacked. He's not wrong.
However, like Bullies this past off-season, Honey Badgers will have contract issues to resolve next summer, and you have to wonder how that's going to impact play on the ice. Burns is a dynamic defenseman who has emerged as one of the best in the league -- but he needs a new deal and is set to become an unrestricted free agent after the season.
The big addition was top six centre Mike Ribeiro, who was signed to a one year show-me/oh-shit-we-lost-Ryan-Kesler contract this summer. Honey Badgers think Ribeiro will provide skill and a little razzle-dazzle to a top six that was heavy on two-way reliability while being low on creativity and showmanship. He skates well, has good vision and is proven point producer. "He's got a lot of great attributes," Honey Badgers’ GM said of the 136-year-old native of Montreal.
There is hope around Honey Badger HQ that the emergence of forwards Elias Lindholm, Robby Fabbri, Sam Bennett and Ryan Spooner this season as top-nine contributors will also help mitigate the loss of Kesler. Lindholm was acquired over the summer and the former 5th overall pick is penciled in as the team’s 1C for the time being, because of his strong two-way ability and passing acumen.
Brent Burns should be in the running for the Norris trophy this year and could compete with Benn for the team scoring lead, depending on how the offense shakes out this year (did we mention Elias Lindholm is the team’s number one centreman at the moment?). Francois Beauchemin will provide excellent defense and is a capable puck-mover and Cam Fowler is, apparently, beyond overjoyed to be playing for a winner after toiling in the minors for Nespresso and being a part of the tire-fire that was Bettbot last season, so it look for him to have a good year on the second pairing.
Jamie Benn is Honey Badgers’ face and most talented player, but keep an eye on Robby Fabbri, the dynamic rookie who showed tantalizing talent and moxie in junior. He looks like a long-term franchise pillar.
THN's Prediction: And, finally, as Roberto Luongo goes, so goes Honey Badgers. No player will be more integral to their team’s success than Strombone this year. He carried Honey Badgers to a Newcombe-Todd Cup last year and shows no signs of slowing down. 2nd in Norris
2015-16 Result: Newcombe-Todd Cup Champions
Honey Badgers will have a successful season if… they repeat as champions.
Honey Badgers will have an unsuccessful season if… they lose in the first round of the playoffs.
Key additions: Mike Ribeiro C/LW; Byron Froese, C; Elias Lindholm, RW/C; Cam Fowler, D
Key departures: Ryan Kesler, C; Mikkel Boedker, LW/RW; Oscar Klefbom, D; Brian Elliott, G
The 7 Keys to Success
1. A franchise centerman: No
2. A franchise defenseman who can play 30 minutes if necessary: Brent Burns
3. Major contributions from players on cheap contracts: Elias Lindholm, Bennett and Fabbri are on their ELCs; Martin Jones; Casey Cizikas
4. Three skilled scoring lines: Benn line
5. A mobile defense: Burns; Fowler; Michael Stone
6. A franchise forward: Jamie Benn and the ageless Jaromir Jagr
7. A franchise goalie: Luongo
Rookies to Watch: Robby Fabbri
Sidney Crosby was traded last season. Twice. He enters this season with a new three-year contract, fresh from an MVP turn at the World Cup of Hockey, where Canada went undefeated and Crosby led all players in points. It's fair to say he was playing as well as he ever had, his attention to detail unparalleled. If there is one leader who might be able to coax a championship out of this group, it's Crosby.
He probably could win the Art Ross Trophy again, but he won’t. Crosby is fully entrenched as the best player in the world right now, but he does so as a devastating two-way player, not a scoreboard scorcher. Sure, if Alpacas need a goal, he’ll be there, but so will a healthy Alex Ovechkin. Crosby, 29, will leave the Art Ross races for Patrick Kane, Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and Connor McDavid, focusing instead on another deep playoff run.
Alpacas believe Frans Nielsen – to whom they gave a one-year deal worth $5.279 million -- will provide exactly what they need: a high-end two-way pivot to take on the opposition’s best players. Nielsen, who helped lead Team Europe to the finals the World Cup of Hockey, proved he could hold his own against the best players in the world. A solid two-way player who can be used in every situation, Nielsen will be an excellent 2C behind Crosby.
Can Ovechkin stay as durable as he has been, given his rough-and-tumble style of play? Will having two fantastic lines and two really, really not fantastic lines be enough to get Alpacas into one of the top four spots in the conference before the playoffs begin? Dustin Brown's game has fallen off a cliff and it's clear his production won't match his contract (even if it is only around $2 million).
The defense is in better shape, with Shea Weber and Brent Seabrook anchoring a top four which now includes Nick Leddy and Ryan Ellis. Rookie Ben Hutton could be a pleasant surpise and his performance will go a long way toward determining how much time Weber and Seabrook will need to spend on the ice each night.
Sure things: Well, there are sure things, like Ovechkin challenging to win a goal-scoring title while hitting everything that moves and then there are other sure things like Shea Weber scaring the bejesus out of opposing forwards while piling up goals on the power play. Fortunately for Alpacas, and unfortunately for everyone else, they’ll both be plying their trade in Peru this year.
One thing Alpacas’ fans had to love was the performance Johnny Gaudreau turned in during the World Cup. If there was any doubt before, that Gaudreau could play his game against the best competition in the world, he ended it.
He's Alpaca's version of Patrick Kane, and on a World Cup team that featured generational stars like Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews, Gaudreau proved he belonged, using his speed consistently to spring odd-man rushes. He also showed a willingness to go into traffic around the net to score goals. He should have a large role to play once the playoffs begin next spring, because he is, for the second season in a row, the most expensive player in the BFHL and as such, will have to spend the majority of the season DESTROYING minor leaguers. He’s yet to play a full season in the BFHL, but Johnny Moneybags has the tools to be a dominant offensive force.
THN's Prediction: Devan Dubnyk has proven in the past that he is capable of taking a team to the playoffs, even winning a round, but in order to compete with the big guns in the Campbell Conference, Alpacas will need Dubnyk to find another level and stay there. 3rd in Norris
2015-16 Result: Lost in second round to Thrashers
Alpacas will have a successful season if… They win two playoff series and compete for a title.
Alpacas will have an unsuccessful season if… They don’t win a playoff round.
Key additions: Johnny Gaudreau, LW; Brock Nelson, C/LW/RW; Nick Leddy, D
Key departures: TJ Oshie, RW; Mikael Granlund, C/LW/RW
The 7 Keys to Success
1. A franchise centerman: Sidney Crosby.
2. A franchise defenseman who can play 30 minutes if necessary: Shea Weber, Brent Seabrook
3. Major contributions from players on cheap contracts: Ryan Ellis
4. Three skilled scoring lines: Crosby line; Nielsen line
5. A mobile defense: Weber; Brent Seabrook; Ryan Ellis and Nick Leddy qualify.
6. A franchise forward: Ovechkin and Gaudreau
7. A franchise goalie: Devan Dubnyk? We’ll see…
Rookies to Watch: Ben Hutton; Hunter Shinkaruk
The arrival of Auston Matthews next season, last June's No. 1 overall selection in the NHL draft, already has Sheep’s fans revved up and some of the bright, young talent that has taken over the team will be on display and will give a glimpse of what's to come. However, the odds are against Sheep earning a postseason berth- but Sheep beat the odds last year and won the draft lottery, so we think it's more likely than not that this team makes an appearance in the second season.
On offense, there's an aging, but motivated, Daniel Sedin. "You realize that when you get older, you're down to your last few years," said Daniel Sedin. "Who knows how many more games you're going to play?" We think he'll have a big season and could lead Sheep in goals.
I'm not sure you can consider Nazem Kadri as a "sure thing" -- but he's making improvements. He needs to become a leader on and off the ice for the younger players on the team. At worst, he's a middle-six contributor... At best, he's a middle-six contributor.
Brad Marchand, who, like Ryan Kesler, recently signed a one-year deal worth over $8 million to join Sheep, should carry his success from the World Cup into this season.
Kesler, on the other hand, is hoping to improve upon his World Cup performance. He’s probably a better player than most analytically inclined people will admit, but he’s not as good as the mainstream media would suggest, and his body has taken a lot of wear and tear over the years. He’s only going to get worse as the years go by.
The forwards on this team are, overall, pretty good. Travis Zajac is an excellent defensive centreman and should chip in some offense, and Scott Hartnell will score around 20 goals.
Any sure things: That's the problem with this team. There are very few sure things. We're pretty sure MacKinnon will be a superstar. Will it happen this season? Probably? We think guys like Marchand and Daniel Sedin will be top-six contributors this season. Can we say so for sure? Nope! Why? Who knows what team they’ll be playing for come the spring. Sheep are poised to either make some noise in the Campbell Conference playoff race as a contender, or as the supplier of this season’s most coveted rentals.
Once again, goaltending could be an issue for Sheep. If Robin Lehner, 25, can remain healthy and have a breakout season, it could mean the difference between a playoff spot or another losing season. Even goaltender Cam Talbot, who is a solid No. 1 starter, isn't a sure thing. They will compete for the starting job throughout the year and if one of them can take the reigns and establish themselves as a legitimate franchise netminder, it will be because they've led this team into the playoffs.
THN's Prediction: This might be a playoff team, this might be an expensive collection of playoff rentals as players like William Nylander and Auston Matthews develop for next year. Young D-man Colton Parayko was a revelation at the World Cup and this year, as a rookie, an will almost certainly establish himself as one of the league’s next best D-men. He leads Sheep’s new generation on the blueline with Shayne Gostisbehere. 4th in Norris
2015-16 Result: Missed the playoffs; won the draft lottery.
SHEEP will have a successful season if… they turn Marchand, Sedin and Kesler into three extra first round draft picks, and/or make the playoffs and win a round.
SHEEP will have an unsuccessful season if… they still have Marchand, Kesler, and Sedin by the end of the season and miss the playoffs.
Key additions: Ryan Kesler, C; Brad Marchand, LW; Nazem Kadri, C
Key departures: Jeff Carter
The 7 Keys to Success
1. A franchise centerman: Ryan Kesler sort of qualifies, right?
2. A franchise defenseman who can play 30 minutes if necessary: It says here that TJ Brodie is a franchise defensemen.
3. Major contributions from players on cheap contracts: Shayne Gostisbehere; Colton Parayko
4. Three skilled scoring lines: No
5. A mobile defense: Brodie; Gostisbehere; Jake Gardiner; Parayko
6. A franchise forward: Brad Marchand and Daniel Sedin
7. A franchise goalie: No
Rookies to Watch: Gostisbehere; Parayko
Torpedoes fit into that uncomfortable category of "Geez, I'm not really sure if they're a team on the rise or just going in an ever-expanding circle." After making a second consecutive playoffs and claiming a six-game victory over the reigning BFHL champion Storm, Torpedoes can't afford to take a step back.
Up front, Filip Forsberg continues to improve as an elite goal scorer, and he's only 22. No reason he can't get to 37-40 goals this season if he stays healthy. What type of season will Max Pacioretty have? His experience as a member of Team USA, which was eliminated in the round-robin phase of the World Cup of Hockey, should motivate him to improve.
Jonathan Huberdeau and Jakub Voracek are both elite, pass-first wingers who will be relied on to get the puck to Steven Stamkos, Forsberg and Pacioretty. It says here they will. One of them might lead the league in assists.
Forwards Radek Faksa and Chris Kreider have shown varying degrees of promise thus far in their careers. Those players, along with Riley Sheahan, need to take the next step in their respective careers -- and that includes more ice time and more responsibility.
Where things get a little murky is on defense, which is solid, but nothing special compared to other contending teams. Still, the overall unit boasts Kevin Shattenkirk, and he should be able to get the puck up ice to Torpedoes’ uber-talented forwards.
THN's Prediction: The problem is, there's no real tangible indication this team is any better than it was last spring -- and, in fact, there's some widespread belief that it already might have regressed after losing key pieces Corey Perry and James Van Riemsdyk. In a division in which everyone else seems to be on the rise, that's not good news. 5th in Norris
2015-16 Result: Lost in the second round to Honey Badgers
TORPEDOES will have a successful season if… they can return to the second round of the playoffs.
TORPEDOES will have an unsuccessful season if… they get eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.
Key additions: None
Key departures: James Van Riemsdyk, LW; Corey Perry, RW
The 7 Keys to Success
1. A franchise centerman: Stamkos, if he’s allowed to play C.
2. A franchise defenseman who can play 30 minutes if necessary: No
3. Major contributions from players on cheap contracts: No
4. Three skilled scoring lines: Stamkos line; Smith line
5. A mobile defense: Kevin Shattenkirk
6. A franchise forward: Max Pacioretty; Filip Forsberg
7. A franchise goalie: Ben Bishop
Rookies to Watch: Not this year
Defensively, Prince Albert Royals have some questions. The health of Niklas Kronwall's knee remains a concern. He was forced to pull out of the World Cup for Team Sweden because of wear and tear on his knees. The team have limited Kronwall during training camp to get him ready for the start of the season.
However, despite Kronwall’s injury concerns, the defense is actually this team’s strength. With Jay Bouwmeester and Brian Campbell, there is a lot of experience and a winning pedigree to guide the franchise through its first season.
Up front, it’s a collection of savvy veterans playing out the string, hoping to take one last run at an unlikely playoff birth. Mike Fisher is, unfortunately, the team’s number one centreman, and while he is still a solid player, he’s better suited to a secondary role as a checking line pivot.
Tyler Bozak is a decent second line centre and will be effective in the faceoff circle. He’s unlikely to lead the team in scoring, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him doing so, either.
Jussi Jokinen, bonafide ageless wonder, is a poor-man’s Jaromir Jagr and will be the engine that drives this offense.
The wingers are an assortment of players who have, at one time or another, been 20-30 goal scorers, and while those days are almost certainly behind them, they could still be effective and produce just enough for this team to be competitive night in and night out.
Jiri Hudler could surprise and provide some unexpected fireworks, but at this stage in his career, and with the lack of options surrounding him, he’ll be hard-pressed to score with any consistency.
THN's Prediction: In goal, PA Royals have Mike Smith. He’s looking to prove that he is still capable of being a legit high-end goalie and will have to be one, if this team is to have any hope of making the playoffs. 6th in Norris
2015-16 Record: NA
PAR will have a successful season if… they reach the playoffs.
PAR will have an unsuccessful season if… they finish in the bottom three and lose out in the draft lottery, getting the 6th overall pick.
Key additions: Jussi Jokinen, LW/RW; Jay Bouwmeester, D; Brian Campbell, D; Mike Smith, G; Tyler Bozak, C; Mike Fisher, C
Key departures:
The 7 Keys to Success
1. A franchise centerman: No
2. A franchise defenseman who can play 30 minutes if necessary: Jay Bouwmeester will have to be the guy, but there’s no guarantee he’s up for the challenge
3. Major contributions from players on cheap contracts: No
4. Three skilled scoring lines: No
5. A mobile defense: Bouwmeester; Campbell
6. A franchise forward: Jussi Jokinen is as close as it gets here
7. A franchise goalie: No
Rookies to Watch: Not this year.